Agriculture and Biotech Sectors Provide Fuels While Defeatists Use Disinformation

The United States is by far the global leader in biological and agricultural technology. To this, you can add the existence of our vast land resources and the strategic advantage of providing more of our own fuel. You would think that there would be little resistance to applying these advantages to our fuel shortage problem. However, like the horse drawn buggy manufacturers fighting the automobile, the fossil fuel based energy companies have fought tooth and nail to prevent renewable fuels from becoming a reality. They have done this with a vengeance that leads one to believe that John Rockefeller’s ghost has returned and is directing their operations.

As each myth is proven false, a new one is invented. The media gives each headlines, but neglects to report on the proven falsity of the previous one. Surprisingly the economic elite are eager to chug-a-lug the false kool aid while the average average person has more common sense. For the benefit of everyone, however, we will examine the facts behind each myth over the next few posts.

Today we will look at the negative energy balance myth. Following days, we will look at the claims of cost to the economy, ethanol performance in an internal combustion engine, and finally we will address the food versus fuel myth.

For quite some time the TV, newspapers, and selected think tanks have been awash with reports that the production of biofuels, especially ethanol from corn, consumed much more energy than was present in the resulting product. This was confusing because almost all studies showed just the opposite. The U. S Department of Energy initiated a study by the Argonne National Laboratory to examine all studies, resolve the difference and finally put an end to the controversy.

The final report was issued on January 7, 2005. The fossil energy to produce one million Btu of fuel was

Ethanol 740,000 Btu
Gasoline 1,230,000 Btu

That is right; it actually takes more fossil energy to produce one million BTU of gasoline than one million BTU of ethanol. Has anyone seen this in the mainstream media?

This is not surprising. The second law of thermodynamics states that it is always necessary to add energy to move from a lower to a higher energy state. It is the price you pay for upgrading a material to a new level. In the case of ethanol from corn, however, the energy comes from a free, renewable outside source-the sun. For gasoline, it comes from burning some of the other crude oil components.

The report used existing dry milling technology for ethanol and did not consider the rapidly improving technology for producing biofuels.

A summary of the study and links to the full report is found at:

http://www.ethanolrfa.org/objects/documents/files/DOE_Summary_of_Argonne.pdf

This report received essentially no publicity outside of the specialized ethanol sector. Reports of a mythical negative energy balance continue to in the media. One change I have noticed is that the “negative balance” has been changed to “barely positive” in some releases. I have yet to see a comparison with the energy to manufacture gasoline.

The next post will look at the overwhelming economic and strategic benefits of this “failed and expensive” movement

Virginia “Civil Remedial Fees” Legislation Shocks Citizens

A weird bill quietly passed by the Virginia Legislature and signed by the Governor has created uproar throughout the state. Its stated purpose is to finance new roads by imposing record-breaking fees and points on citizens cited for traffic violations. These fees only apply to Virginia residents and are in addition to the normal penalties. They are so severe that the state is paid in the form of three annual payments..

This site provides an explanation and listing of the fees.

http://www.courts.state.va.us/publications/hb_3202.pdf

For example any form of reckless driving requires that an additional fee of $350 per year be accessed for each of three years. If a suspended license is involved the law requires a fee of $1000 for each of the three years. This is in addition to the current penalties. I repeat that it only applies to residents of Virginia.

The first public reaction was a rush to find out who voted for the bill. I was shocked to see that my representative, whom I have supported in the past, was one of those who did. There is now a call for a special session for total repeal. The following site is active in the recall.

http://www.ipetitions.com/petition/VAtrafficfees/

There is also rage directed to the numerous law firms who track down unresponsive traffic violators under contract to the state. Because a large portion of the poorer citizens will face jail because they just can’t pay fines of this magnitude the law will be a multi-million dollar bonanza for these firms. A member of the legislation who owns such a firm introduced the bill. Read this

http://content.hamptonroads.com/story.cfm?story=127172&ran=8101

and this:

http://peninsulalaw.blogspot.com/2007/07/defending-civil-remedial-fees.html

Most infuriating is the blatant arrogance of those who pushed a bill of this magnitude through at the last minute. It has both Republican and Democratic support but is largely a Republican bill. The Democratic Governor signed it.

This site lists the voting records. It should be useful for the November elections.

http://www.thenewspaper.com/news/18/1856.asp

To experience the full fury of the Virginia Internet users on this subject do a Google Search on “Virginia Civil Remedial Fees”. I got 728,000 hits. Not everyone is against it but defenders are hard to find. At last I did find a defender-the governor who signed it

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19857278/

So the battle to limit the ever-growing power of government continues. Maybe we still have some rebellious drive left in us. What do you think Tom Jefferson?

Do Think Tanks Really Think?

Without getting into both the philosophy and science of defining “thinking”, I believe most people would agree that it is associated with a minimum ability to take a variety of inputs and produce an output that has higher order than the individual inputs. My question is “What is it called when an organism always produces the same output no matter what the inputs?”

Evolution has seen that there is no such organism surviving in nature. But human institutions with that characteristic abound. They are very inappropriately called “think tanks.” You can identify them by the descriptor, which follows their name-- The Heritage Foundation “a conservative think tank”, The Brookings Institution, “a liberal think tank”, The Cato Institute, “a libertarian think tank” and so on...

It appears that someone incorrectly installed their analytical engine. They do not carefully process all available inputs to produce a logical output. They start with the always-predictable output and simply ignore the existence of any input that might support a different conclusion.

Unfortunately, shouting matches between representatives of institutions of this type have become the TV standard for so-called “balanced discussion”. When was the last time you witnessed objective reasoning by a thoughtful analyst? You remember the type-people who actually consider all of the facts before reaching their conclusions.

Virginia Tech After Some Time

The shooting at Virginia Tech hit Northern Virginia so hard that no post can adequately describe the aftermath. VT is by far the school of choice for the middle class of this area. Almost everyone had a relative who had, or is attending VT. One statistic quoted by one teacher was that out of a recent graduating class of slightly more than 400 students from one Loudoun County high school 123 went on to Virginia Tech. .

The image of a cold-blooded killer calmly walking the hallway, entering classrooms and eventually killing 32 students was so horrible that it originally muted public discussion. The plea to wait for the facts to come in before reaching judgment on the VT administration seemed to be holding. That period has now ended and there is deep resentment on how VT was so ill prepared.

In a recent heated discussion among several people, the following questions were asked.

Why could the classrooms not be securely locked from the inside? This would have stopped the shooting after the first classroom. The students were forced to attempt to keep him out with tables and their bodies. Is VT correcting this immediately? This certainly does not need a commission’s recommendation. (Loudoun County has just announced it is installing a buzz to enter system with closed cameras on all schools).

How long are we going to tolerate the ridiculous “gun free” zones that end up as “victim disarmament zones”? If the pilots were armed on 9/11 that tragedy would have been stopped.

What did they mean saying the failure to call an emergency (with two people murdered and the gunman free) was “the right decisions given the information”? It should not have even been a decision up for discussion. A thoughtful standing policy should have made calling a full emergency designation immediate and automatic. The fact that it was even discussed shows how little forethought was given to security.

It was also noted that if the killer’s mental condition had been put into the system, he would have been denied a gun but he might have used a rental truck.

The discussion ended with great sadness.

Socially Hip Things I Still Haven't Done

1. Read a Harry Potter book
2. Been snowboarding
3. Bought a $10 martini
4. Paid $100 for a Redskin ticket
5. Established a PayPal account
6. Checked myself out in a supermarket
7. Sold anything on eBay
8. Established a MySpace site

One Iraqi Scenario on Which There is Total Agreement

Although there is disagreement about the US being in Iraq for the “war on terror” there is total agreement on sectarian warfare. Everyone is adamant that under no conditions should we sacrifice a single American to prevent the radical Islamic Shiites and the radical Islamic Sunnis in Iraq from killing each other. In fact we should encourage it. [Based upon an unscientific but exhaustive survey of everyone sitting at the bar on Monday night]

The Virginia Marriage Amendment-What Have We Done?

Because of the media attention to the national election the shocking overwhelming approval of a Virginia constitutional amendment has not received the attention it deserves.

This is not your standard marriage amendment that defines marriage but leaves the door open to marriage-like contractual relationships. It not only bans similar contracts but also extends the ban to anyone having a relationship outside of marriage.

The first sentence of the amendment reads:

"That only a union between one man and one woman may be a marriage valid in or recognized by this Commonwealth and its political subdivisions."

Now read the rest of it:

"This Commonwealth and its political subdivisions shall not create or recognize a legal status for relationships of unmarried individuals that intends to approximate the design, qualities, significance, or effects of marriage. Nor shall this Commonwealth or its political subdivisions create or recognize another union, partnership, or other legal status to which is assigned the rights, benefits, obligations, qualities, or effects of marriage."

Yes, that is right. If you are not married in a manner approved by the state, you cannot have a legal agreement that even intends to give you the effects of marriage.

Well, if it applies to gays it should apply to everyone. However, did those 57% who voted for it understand the level of this invasion on personal life by the Virginia government. A state that was at the forefront of the formation of the United States? Thomas Jefferson-please come back!

The approval was widespread. The only counties that voted against it were Albemarle, Arlington, and Fairfax. Loudoun supported it at the 54.6 % level. Where were all those people who moved to Loudoun from Fairfax to escape the “communist government” that had taken over?

I was at a tavern where the amendment was discussed in detail on election night eve. Every person participating understood both parts and disapproved. The conversation centered on what legislative body had the nerve to put such an amendment forward. I went home looking forward to seeing it go down by a large margin-at least in Loudoun.

I faced an even bigger surprise than seeing Allen go down.

A Time for Reflection

Remember all the learned lectures oil experts gave us that $75 per barrel crude oil was due to natural laws of supply and demand over which we had no control-except to stop driving SUV’s. A BusinessWeek analysis based upon actual data reaches a quite different conclusion. Surprise! A large portion of the increase was due to overheated speculation by hedge funds. Now that the speculators are off for other waters to muddy, we have drastic reductions in the price of gasoline. You can read the analysis here

Speculation certainly has both a dark and bright side but this last little foray into speculation on transportation fuels was extremely costly to the country. Not only did it put a hardship on millions of working Americans and force our two automakers into major layoffs, it also pumped billions of dollars to our enemies.

The one bright spot would be if we do not forget. Please America, whichever political party; do not ever again turn our energy policy over to the oil companies. Please realize that the solution lies in the American spirit that has brought, or is bringing diverse renewable energy sources to practicality. If incentives are required to make this happen -provide them.

We really cannot afford another repeat of the last few years.

The Right Decision

Weeks ago, S stated that she needed a job that would add more interest to the daily grind. Therefore, she had made the decision to leave a career in retail sales to take a position in child daycare. Because she was new to the field, she would be starting as an assistant-although she was herself a grandmother.

When she stopped in after her first day, you could immediately tell that she had made the right decision. Everyone within listening distance stopped his or her discussions to absorb her enthusiasm.

“Yes, there were two of us with fifteen 3 year olds-- all day. And just transitioning into being potty trained. But they were very well behaved-For many of them this was the first time they were away from their parents. In fact, they were adorable”

On and on she went. Everyone agreed they had never seen her is so uplifted a state.

What happened to S confirms a theory I have held for quite some time. The closer you are to working in cooperation with a basic force of nature the happier you will be in your job. The love and protection of children is one of the strongest elements of human nature. By changing jobs, S had made the jump from a derivative activity set by civilization to riding a basic force.

Oh yes there was one negative of the new job. Apparently it is a basic rule of childcare that you always address the children at their height by kneeling or bending over. S did say “My back is killing me from all the leaning over-I definitely will have to get in better shape.”

We're Back

We are back. A lot has changed in the last five months.

The real estate boom is over for now. All of the “For Sale” signs are staying up and many have had “price reduced” added. The inflow of people with cash from selling their city house has dropped to a trickle

Admitting that moderation of the market was necessary, the opinion of almost everyone in the business is that the hard landing is due to the self-fulfilling prophecies that the media has been selling for years. The image of an impending housing bubble collapse finally became burned into every potential buyer’s mind.

However, there is still enthusiasm for the future. The experienced agents have seen these cycles many times in the past. Being close to the Washington DC has conditioned everyone to expect never-ending growth.

The lawn care business was hit with a double whammy this summer-high gasoline prices and the August drought. Although the drought is over, the grass is really growing in the cool weather, and gas prices are falling, the summer is now over. A winter with lots of snow removal requirements would be helpful.

The summer cost of gasoline has been bad for everyone. The real cost is being borne by workers who need heavy trucks to carry their tools to their work sites-which are never close to home. This was made worse by the knowledge that the pumped up costs were going to companies who are splitting the profits into channels that end up funding many of our enemies.

As for all that “oil is a free market” talk. Notice where the prices have dropped most drastically? The mid-west.- the only area where there is the wide availability of a competing fuel-ethanol.

Lots more to discuss in the next post