Do Think Tanks Really Think?

Without getting into both the philosophy and science of defining “thinking”, I believe most people would agree that it is associated with a minimum ability to take a variety of inputs and produce an output that has higher order than the individual inputs. My question is “What is it called when an organism always produces the same output no matter what the inputs?”

Evolution has seen that there is no such organism surviving in nature. But human institutions with that characteristic abound. They are very inappropriately called “think tanks.” You can identify them by the descriptor, which follows their name-- The Heritage Foundation “a conservative think tank”, The Brookings Institution, “a liberal think tank”, The Cato Institute, “a libertarian think tank” and so on...

It appears that someone incorrectly installed their analytical engine. They do not carefully process all available inputs to produce a logical output. They start with the always-predictable output and simply ignore the existence of any input that might support a different conclusion.

Unfortunately, shouting matches between representatives of institutions of this type have become the TV standard for so-called “balanced discussion”. When was the last time you witnessed objective reasoning by a thoughtful analyst? You remember the type-people who actually consider all of the facts before reaching their conclusions.

Virginia Tech After Some Time

The shooting at Virginia Tech hit Northern Virginia so hard that no post can adequately describe the aftermath. VT is by far the school of choice for the middle class of this area. Almost everyone had a relative who had, or is attending VT. One statistic quoted by one teacher was that out of a recent graduating class of slightly more than 400 students from one Loudoun County high school 123 went on to Virginia Tech. .

The image of a cold-blooded killer calmly walking the hallway, entering classrooms and eventually killing 32 students was so horrible that it originally muted public discussion. The plea to wait for the facts to come in before reaching judgment on the VT administration seemed to be holding. That period has now ended and there is deep resentment on how VT was so ill prepared.

In a recent heated discussion among several people, the following questions were asked.

Why could the classrooms not be securely locked from the inside? This would have stopped the shooting after the first classroom. The students were forced to attempt to keep him out with tables and their bodies. Is VT correcting this immediately? This certainly does not need a commission’s recommendation. (Loudoun County has just announced it is installing a buzz to enter system with closed cameras on all schools).

How long are we going to tolerate the ridiculous “gun free” zones that end up as “victim disarmament zones”? If the pilots were armed on 9/11 that tragedy would have been stopped.

What did they mean saying the failure to call an emergency (with two people murdered and the gunman free) was “the right decisions given the information”? It should not have even been a decision up for discussion. A thoughtful standing policy should have made calling a full emergency designation immediate and automatic. The fact that it was even discussed shows how little forethought was given to security.

It was also noted that if the killer’s mental condition had been put into the system, he would have been denied a gun but he might have used a rental truck.

The discussion ended with great sadness.

Socially Hip Things I Still Haven't Done

1. Read a Harry Potter book
2. Been snowboarding
3. Bought a $10 martini
4. Paid $100 for a Redskin ticket
5. Established a PayPal account
6. Checked myself out in a supermarket
7. Sold anything on eBay
8. Established a MySpace site

One Iraqi Scenario on Which There is Total Agreement

Although there is disagreement about the US being in Iraq for the “war on terror” there is total agreement on sectarian warfare. Everyone is adamant that under no conditions should we sacrifice a single American to prevent the radical Islamic Shiites and the radical Islamic Sunnis in Iraq from killing each other. In fact we should encourage it. [Based upon an unscientific but exhaustive survey of everyone sitting at the bar on Monday night]

The Virginia Marriage Amendment-What Have We Done?

Because of the media attention to the national election the shocking overwhelming approval of a Virginia constitutional amendment has not received the attention it deserves.

This is not your standard marriage amendment that defines marriage but leaves the door open to marriage-like contractual relationships. It not only bans similar contracts but also extends the ban to anyone having a relationship outside of marriage.

The first sentence of the amendment reads:

"That only a union between one man and one woman may be a marriage valid in or recognized by this Commonwealth and its political subdivisions."

Now read the rest of it:

"This Commonwealth and its political subdivisions shall not create or recognize a legal status for relationships of unmarried individuals that intends to approximate the design, qualities, significance, or effects of marriage. Nor shall this Commonwealth or its political subdivisions create or recognize another union, partnership, or other legal status to which is assigned the rights, benefits, obligations, qualities, or effects of marriage."

Yes, that is right. If you are not married in a manner approved by the state, you cannot have a legal agreement that even intends to give you the effects of marriage.

Well, if it applies to gays it should apply to everyone. However, did those 57% who voted for it understand the level of this invasion on personal life by the Virginia government. A state that was at the forefront of the formation of the United States? Thomas Jefferson-please come back!

The approval was widespread. The only counties that voted against it were Albemarle, Arlington, and Fairfax. Loudoun supported it at the 54.6 % level. Where were all those people who moved to Loudoun from Fairfax to escape the “communist government” that had taken over?

I was at a tavern where the amendment was discussed in detail on election night eve. Every person participating understood both parts and disapproved. The conversation centered on what legislative body had the nerve to put such an amendment forward. I went home looking forward to seeing it go down by a large margin-at least in Loudoun.

I faced an even bigger surprise than seeing Allen go down.

A Time for Reflection

Remember all the learned lectures oil experts gave us that $75 per barrel crude oil was due to natural laws of supply and demand over which we had no control-except to stop driving SUV’s. A BusinessWeek analysis based upon actual data reaches a quite different conclusion. Surprise! A large portion of the increase was due to overheated speculation by hedge funds. Now that the speculators are off for other waters to muddy, we have drastic reductions in the price of gasoline. You can read the analysis here

Speculation certainly has both a dark and bright side but this last little foray into speculation on transportation fuels was extremely costly to the country. Not only did it put a hardship on millions of working Americans and force our two automakers into major layoffs, it also pumped billions of dollars to our enemies.

The one bright spot would be if we do not forget. Please America, whichever political party; do not ever again turn our energy policy over to the oil companies. Please realize that the solution lies in the American spirit that has brought, or is bringing diverse renewable energy sources to practicality. If incentives are required to make this happen -provide them.

We really cannot afford another repeat of the last few years.

The Right Decision

Weeks ago, S stated that she needed a job that would add more interest to the daily grind. Therefore, she had made the decision to leave a career in retail sales to take a position in child daycare. Because she was new to the field, she would be starting as an assistant-although she was herself a grandmother.

When she stopped in after her first day, you could immediately tell that she had made the right decision. Everyone within listening distance stopped his or her discussions to absorb her enthusiasm.

“Yes, there were two of us with fifteen 3 year olds-- all day. And just transitioning into being potty trained. But they were very well behaved-For many of them this was the first time they were away from their parents. In fact, they were adorable”

On and on she went. Everyone agreed they had never seen her is so uplifted a state.

What happened to S confirms a theory I have held for quite some time. The closer you are to working in cooperation with a basic force of nature the happier you will be in your job. The love and protection of children is one of the strongest elements of human nature. By changing jobs, S had made the jump from a derivative activity set by civilization to riding a basic force.

Oh yes there was one negative of the new job. Apparently it is a basic rule of childcare that you always address the children at their height by kneeling or bending over. S did say “My back is killing me from all the leaning over-I definitely will have to get in better shape.”

We're Back

We are back. A lot has changed in the last five months.

The real estate boom is over for now. All of the “For Sale” signs are staying up and many have had “price reduced” added. The inflow of people with cash from selling their city house has dropped to a trickle

Admitting that moderation of the market was necessary, the opinion of almost everyone in the business is that the hard landing is due to the self-fulfilling prophecies that the media has been selling for years. The image of an impending housing bubble collapse finally became burned into every potential buyer’s mind.

However, there is still enthusiasm for the future. The experienced agents have seen these cycles many times in the past. Being close to the Washington DC has conditioned everyone to expect never-ending growth.

The lawn care business was hit with a double whammy this summer-high gasoline prices and the August drought. Although the drought is over, the grass is really growing in the cool weather, and gas prices are falling, the summer is now over. A winter with lots of snow removal requirements would be helpful.

The summer cost of gasoline has been bad for everyone. The real cost is being borne by workers who need heavy trucks to carry their tools to their work sites-which are never close to home. This was made worse by the knowledge that the pumped up costs were going to companies who are splitting the profits into channels that end up funding many of our enemies.

As for all that “oil is a free market” talk. Notice where the prices have dropped most drastically? The mid-west.- the only area where there is the wide availability of a competing fuel-ethanol.

Lots more to discuss in the next post

Don't Blame the Solution!

Background

The newspapers and local television stations in Virginia are reporting stories of stations running out of gasoline in the Hampton Roads area. There are predictions of very high prices because “the government is making oil companies add ethanol to their gasoline.” The complexity and disarray in the countries supply of transportation fuels has allowed some outrageous lies and misleading spin but this is one that reaches the ceiling

Because I am a chemical engineer who spent 15 years in the industry and known to favor ethanol as a contributor to our transportation fuels supply I have been besieged by friends asking for a explanation of this situation. To save my failing voice and to spare those who are tired of hearing it repeated I have decided to post the facts where anyone interested can read them.

The Truth
The current situation was born in the 60’s when the world finally became fully aware that the tetraethyl lead the oil industry had been adding to gasoline as an octane booster for fifty years was a first order environmental and health disaster. The lead containing exhaust fumes were contaminating the air and lead oxide was coating everything along the highways. Once washed off by rain it entered the streams and groundwater. It was showing up in blood samples of children living near traffic areas. I remember warnings against picking any berries growing along the roadside.

Forget current worries about CO2 emissions -this was real poison! Tetraethyl lead in gasoline is considered one of the major environmental disasters of the 20th century . Leaded gasoline was phased out in the US from 1975 - 1986. Europe banned it in the 1990s. It is still used in the developing world where it is a major health hazard. For the dismal history of tetraethyl lead in gasoline you can click HERE

The industry needed another additive. This time the additive would not just be for octane enhancement. It also had to improve the burning characteristics of gasoline to meet new air pollution requirements.

There were two options: MTBE and Ethanol

MTBE is a manufactured petrochemical, of unknown toxicity to humans at low concentrations, but a carcinogen on inhalation and very persistent when spilled into nature. It is very soluble in water and once in is hard to get out. At concentrations greater that 40 parts per billion-it creates a turpentine taste in the water.

Ethanol as we all know is so non-toxic we sometime drink it. It is created in nature when sugars and the right yeasts are present.

Because I have pledged to include no speculation in my discussion, I will only report that MTBE was chosen by the industry as the favored additive . The effect of the decision was to push ethanol out of a large potential market and provide one for MTBE.

As could be expected MTBE began working its way into water supplies-presumably by overfilling at the pump and gasoline tank leakage. In 1995, major contamination was discovered in water supplies in Santa Monica, CA. This triggered extensive further monitoring and the discovery of additional contamination across the country.

This time it was the states taking action. By September 2005 twenty five states had legislation to end the use of MTBE. In 2002, a California lawsuit came down against the oil companies. California started a four-year replacement program with ethanol in 2003.

With lawsuits multiplying the oil industry made a major push for federal legislation which would shield them against legal action. The last chance effort was for inclusion in the Energy Policy Act of 2005. The protection was in the House version but eliminated in the Senate. The political winds were blowing hard against the oil companies. The Act as passed had no MTBE lawsuit protection for the industry.

With no shield from lawsuits, the industry announced the removal of MTBE from all fuels by May 2006. It would reformulate with ethanol. This sudden decision placed a short-term strain on ethanol capacity and created tight timetables for conversion of the blending facilities. There are now 99 operating ethanol plants with 33 more expected to start up in 2006. The Renewable Fuels Association has testified to congress that these facilities will meet the capacity requirements for ethanol. Any short term problems can be resolved by temporally importing ethanol from Brazil and the Caribbean.

However, ethanol prices have gone up. At the current price of ethanol, the cost of adding it to the 10% level in gasoline should go up by a few cents, and then drop as ethanol becomes readily available.

This industry chosen rapid reformulation away from MTBE may cause a small disruption. It has nothing to do with the Energy Act of 2005 mandate for the long-term use of more bio-fuels by 2010. That requirement is easily met.

To their credit, many of the oil companies and distributors have professionally rounded up the ethanol they need and say they will meet their goals. They promise to be a reliable supplier of environmentally sound transportation fuels. Buy your gasoline from them!

Do not listen to those who are putting out the disgraceful spin that this problem is somehow due to ethanol and not past bad choices for additives. Do not buy anything from them!

Growing Houses Instead of Corn, Northern Virginia is No Longer a Player in the Ethanol Boom

During the first national push to replace a portion of the nation’s gasoline with ethanol derived from homegrown corn Virginia was one of the most active states. Because it was located close to the fuel consuming Washington area, grew lots of corn, and had a large dairy industry to consume the byproduct distillers grains Northern Virginia and the Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia were very attractive locations. The state legislature passed some tax incentives to get the industry moving and a number of ethanol plants were planned for the area.

This all ended in the early 80's when the Middle East suppliers dropped the price of crude oil to $15 per barrel and the nation was convinced that the problem was solved.

Twenty-five years later high quality crude oil is now approaching $70 per barrel and mostly available from unstable and unfriendly countries. The ethanol- for-fuel boom is back. There are 97 plants now operating and another 42 new plants going on line or expanding this year. Four billion gallons of fuel ethanol were produced in 2005. This amount will surely double within a few years. With all of the cash staying in the US instead of leaving the country, we appear to have finally learned our lesson. The industry is definitely here to stay.

But this time Northern Virginia will be a consumer, not a producer. The cornfields and dairy farms are replaced with housing developments and shopping centers. It is now more profitable to grow houses than corn. The excitement and energy of combining our agricultural strength with our process engineering skills to solve a national problem has all moved to the mid-west. That area deserves tremendous credit for keeping the vision alive until now, when the country desperately needs it.

On behalf of all those who were active in the early Virginia initiatives we are sorry our state can't be a larger part of the excitement.